‘Trump Bump’ Could Boost Social Security Checks in 2026 – But Will People Really Get to Spend It?

Millions of Americans, retirees, and beneficiaries depend on Social Security benefits for monthly financial obligations. That’s why millions will watch closely next year’s COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, as it is expected to deliver a slight reprieve in this inflationary environment.

Supporters of the current administration have dubbed it the ‘Trump Bump’. According to the Motley Fool report, the adjustment is expected to be 2.7%. This would put an extra $54 into the pockets of average social security recipients.

This would be a minor increase for a few people, and some will find these few dollars worth it. However, experts warn that the reality of the situation might be more complicated.

The Social Security Administration calculates COLA adjustments based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Based on these, the COLA adjustment for 2026 is estimated to be 2.7%, which is lower than the previous adjustment of 3.2%. The highest adjustment seen in the last five years was 8.7% in 2023. The estimation for the next adjustment is very low, and the minor bump in the benefits will be lost to rising inflation.

In the US, the average beneficiary receives $2,100 every month in Social Security. A 2.7% rise could mean a rise of almost $650 per year. This amount may seem big, but one has to remember that this rise is annual and much less than what retirees have seen in the last decade.

The Medicare premium is expected to rise too next year, and therefore, the extra money that one will receive after the adjustment will be negligible.

The rise in Medicare premiums is one of the biggest concerns for beneficiaries at the moment. Not everyone will receive enough extra dollars after the COLA adjustment for 2026. The Medicare Part B premium is directly deducted from their Social Security checks. If the rise in the Part B premium is sharp, it could easily offset much of the COLA bump.

Experts have cautioned retirees to prepare themselves only for a partial net gain.

Some economists have tied the 2026 COLA adjustment to the current administration’s trade and tariff policies, thus the name Trump bump.

Donald Trump’s government has placed tariffs on several nations, which has, in turn, increased the prices of products. While few items have seen a stark increase in price, there has been a modest rise in the cost of other products.

These price rises are used to calculate the COLA adjustment, which has now reached 2.7%. However, one must remember that these price hikes would also affect inflation, which will eat into the offset in social security.

However, these advocates of the current administration have high hopes that the Trump administration will send more inflation bonuses and checks to the beneficiaries based on their tax statements.

However, others have argued for the seniors, saying that even a $54 increase in Social Security is better than nothing, but it may not go far in today’s inflationary environment.

For millions of people who depend on their monthly checks as their primary income, the debate over the social security bump due to COLA adjustment is futile if it is not in accordance with inflation and rising premium prices. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration would curb the inflation in its place, retract the plans to increase Medicare premiums, and then ensure the COLA adjustments so that retirees could see the numbers in the bank balance increase significantly.