The Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) is one of the only tools by SSA that helps fight inflation through the benefits. It is one of the most anticipated announcements for millions of retirees across the United States each year. Every year, COLA determines how much its monthly benefit payments will rise in response to inflation.
However, for 2026, there is uncertainty since the COLA is not as much as it was expected by the people, and also because of the government shutdown, the announcement date is in jeopardy. Every year, the Social Security Administration announces COLA by mid-October.
🚨 A government shutdown could delay the 2026 Social Security COLA announcement.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics can’t release inflation data during a shutdown, which means the SSA can’t finish its COLA calculations just yet.
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As per the calculator, SSA should announce COLA numbers by October 15. However, the federal government is shut down right now. Unless the government opens up again, these details might not be announced, and the delay in announcement will affect its impact on the benefits checks next year.
The shutdown has temporarily put the brakes on key economic data releases that the SSA depends on to calculate the adjustment.
Based on the projections of economic forecasters, the 2026 COLA boost is likely to be a 2.7% increase. This is a moderate change from the past years. It may be responding to a decrease in inflation levels after the turbulent years of 2022–2024.
For retirees, the COLA amount directly impacts their monthly checks. The raise is added as a percentage to each beneficiary’s current benefit, so those currently getting larger checks will be allocated higher dollar amounts.
For instance, a retiree who is already getting $2,000 monthly would receive an extra $54 per month, bringing his or her payment to about $2,054 starting January 2026.
The partial government shutdown has caused disruption in the operation of several federal agencies across the board. This includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It is the agency that is responsible for publishing the Consumer Price Index (CPI). SSA uses the CPI data that forms the basis of the COLA calculations.
Without updated CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) data for September, the official CAOLA valuations can not be submitted. The longer the shutdown remains, the greater is the delay in the official announcement.
It is speculated that if the shutdown continues beyond mid-October, retirees and beneficiaries may have to wait till the end of October or even the first week of November to find out how much their social security benefit is going to be raised.
COLA adjustments are percentage-based. Therefore, retirees in wealthier states will see the largest absolute increases.. These wealthier states are the ones where average benefits are higher due to higher lifetime earnings.
Here are the top 10 states with the highest median Social Security benefits for retirees:
- New Jersey – $2,172
- Connecticut – $2,159
- Delaware – $2,139
- New Hampshire – $2,121
- Maryland – $2,084
- Michigan – $2,067
- Washington – $2,061
- Minnesota – $2,053
- Massachusetts – $2,021
- Indiana – $2,016
Retirees in these states can expect the most significant monthly increases once the COLA is implemented in early 2026.
The expected 2.7% adjustment is modest compared to pandemic-era increases. However, it can still provide vital relief to millions of seniors coping with rising living costs. The SSA has reassured beneficiaries that, despite the government shutdown, payments will continue without interruption.
Until the political stalemate in Washington ends, however, retirees will need to wait a bit longer to see the final numbers.
