Is the Republican Party finally cracking under Donald Trump’s grip, or is this just another Beltway fantasy? Veteran strategist Simon Rosenberg believes something real is happening. In a new analysis, he points to “little cracks” appearing inside the GOP that could quickly become fractures as the government shutdown drags on and Trump’s approval numbers sink.
“My response, of course, is that little cracks can become big cracks, and you just never know in politics,” Rosenberg wrote, warning that the party’s loyalty to Trump might finally be eroding.
Rosenberg argues on his blog that Trump “is now consistently more unpopular than Joe Biden was after his disastrous debate performance,” and that Republicans face a stark choice on the ongoing budget standoff. To keep the government running, he says, GOP lawmakers would have to effectively “ratify the president’s authoritarian fantasies” and “ongoing sabotage” of the country. “Can they get 60 votes for that?” he asked. “Can they even get a majority of Republicans, including those facing competitive elections next year, to vote for that?”
The situation, Rosenberg believes, is becoming untenable. “Basically, Trump is a huge f**k up,” he wrote. “His agenda is toxic, his powers are ebbing, and voting for all this will make it more likely that vulnerable Republicans will lose their elections next year, and that the country itself will be harmed.”
Even among Trump’s usual defenders, the unease is visible. House Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has criticized her own party’s leadership for the chaos surrounding the shutdown, saying the lack of strategy is “hurting real families.” Senator Ted Cruz has publicly expressed frustration over what he called “the party’s lack of discipline.” Conservative commentator Laura Loomer, long one of Trump’s loudest cheerleaders, recently complained that his administration’s handling of national security issues “has made people not want to vote.”
For Rosenberg, those rumblings matter. He cites “small pockets of resistance” inside the GOP, lawmakers who are beginning to push back on Trump’s demands. They are small, but notable in a party that has remained almost completely united behind the former president for years.
Rosenberg believes Republicans “are in a far darker political place than the current discourse reflects,” arguing they are being forced to defend “the worst government in our history, one that is doing clear, material, intentional harm to the country.” He suggests many are aware of the danger but too afraid to challenge Trump publicly. “Will they start to walk away from it all, the health care cuts, the tariffs, the ICE expansion, him, to attempt to mitigate the damage?” he asked. “Will little cracks become big cracks? Or will they stay the course out of fear and cowardice?”
The question remains open. Some within the GOP are beginning to acknowledge Trump’s drag on their electoral chances, while others still cling to his base’s fervent support. Rosenberg’s view is that the tension cannot hold forever. “The party can only lose two votes in the House and three in the Senate,” he wrote, describing how narrow majorities could unravel quickly.
For now, the cracks are hairline fractures, but in politics, pressure has a way of widening them. Whether the GOP’s long-awaited breaking point with Trump arrives in weeks or years, Rosenberg believes the strain is already showing.
