The Trump administration’s flagship efficiency drive is looking a lot smaller in the ledger. A comprehensive review by POLITICO of the Department of Government Efficiency’s public “Wall of Receipts” finds DOGE’s verifiable savings total about $1.4 billion, less than 5% of what the department has claimed from canceling contracts across the government.
POLITICO’s analysis examined roughly $32.7 billion of DOGE’s posted contract “savings” through July and traced nearly 10,100 terminations; the money actually clawed back came to about $1.4 billion and, crucially, does not reduce the deficit without congressional action.
DOGE, created by executive order on January 20, 2025, was launched to slash waste and modernize federal tech, with the White House touting “historic” savings and near-real-time transparency. DOGE’s own dashboard now lists $202 billion in “estimated savings” across contracts, grants, leases, workforce and regulatory changes, and says its receipts represent a subset of the total.
The gap, analysts say, comes down to math and methodology. DOGE frequently counts the maximum ceiling value of a multi-year contract as “savings” when a deal is canceled, even if agencies never came close to obligating that full amount. Ceiling value reflects what could be spent in the future, not what was committed. In federal accounting, obligations are promises to spend and outlays are cash actually paid, a distinction that looms large in these tallies.
One headline example: DOGE claimed $2.9 billion in savings from canceling a shelter contract in Pecos, Texas, for unaccompanied migrant children. But the contract’s $3.3 billion ceiling assumed five years at full capacity; federal records show the government had obligated about $428 million, and insiders said the realistic maximum avoided cost before the decision date was closer to $126 million.
Another DOGE credited $166 million in savings for curbing a Department of Energy contract with Guidehouse tied to appliance-efficiency standards. POLITICO reports the department had recalled $0 and mostly trimmed the ceiling by just under $100 million, which amounts to avoiding possible future spending rather than cash returned. DOE, for its part, has argued deregulation will lower costs for consumers, while its own materials long touted billions in consumer savings from standards.
The White House has pushed back on the critique, insisting DOGE’s numbers are “rigorously scrubbed” with agency procurement officials and updated as new information arrives. DOGE’s public tally moved higher again this week, to about $54.2 billion in contract “savings,” even as outside analysts question how those totals are derived and how much cash actually returns to government accounts.
Even if agencies de-obligate more funds on DOGE-listed contracts, those dollars usually get repurposed inside the same agencies unless Congress passes a rescission under the Impoundment Control Act, meaning big “savings” headlines rarely translate into deficit reduction on their own.
Bottom line is DOGE’s receipts page may advertise tens of billions in “savings,” but the best verified figure remains about $1.4 billion recovered so far. The math may be great for podiums, yet on paper, it’s a much smaller bite.
Elon Musk officially departed from his role with DOGE at the end of May 2025, concluding his tenure as a Special Government Employee. His run was unpopular, leading to protests against Tesla. He also fell out with Trump with a single tweet from Musk, leading to a surge in the Epstein conspiracies.
