The 2026 cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) would soon be announced in October. With inflation cooling, experts now expect the 2026 COLA for Social Security to land between 2.6% and 2.7%. It however is too modest to keep up with true expenditure of retirees in current inflation.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and independent analysts such as Mary Johnson project a 2.6% – 2.7% benefit boost. This is slightly higher than the current year’s 2.5%. But it is still very less to make the benefits useful and survivable in the current economy and inflation.
Those who receive the average payment of about $2,000/month would add an extra $50 to $55, which is not nearly enough. It would bring the total benefits to around $2,060 only. There is a possibility of COLA going up to 2.8%, but it depends purely on summer inflation and its steadiness.
But the true high medical and housing costs mean that the actual purchasing power drains may be even lesser than they appear. CPI-W does not consider these categories, and if considered COLA percentage would be very high.
The annual bump comes at a cost. The premiums for Medicare Part B are expected to rise from $185 to $206.50 in 2026. It is an 11.6% increase. Analysts have warned that for many beneficiaries, the COLA bump may be completely eliminated due to this jump in premium. This will be true especially for those who earn below $800 a month.
Make it make sense.
I HAVE to sign up for Medicare at 65, with the Part B costing significantly more than my Tricare Prime….and somehow this is better for people approaching retirement?
Make it make sense.
— Elsie Eye (@EyeElsie) July 30, 2025
When rising deductibles and Part D costs are added, the net benefit to seniors may be reduced further. Inflation in healthcare and housing is one of the biggest price points for most retirees, and it will continue to accelerate compared to overall CPI-W.
Critics have argued that the official COLA is calculated using CPI-W. This tracks urban workers’ expenses, not retirees’. Therefore, it is not an accurate policy to calculate the COLA. Healthcare and housing are the biggest shareholder for older American expenditure and CPI-W fails to calculate it in its inflation index.
These factors tend to rise faster than general inflation.
Social Security Update: Benefits Could Get a Major Change Under New Bill – If the Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act gets passed, though, that all could change, and seniors would likely see higher yearly boosts to their benefits. https://t.co/nWlDwTMEEJ pic.twitter.com/w6skdzWqs6
— Scott Cromwell (@aLifeOfItsOwn) March 22, 2024
There is a new proposed Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act. It would shift calculations to CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly), potentially resulting in higher benefits.
However, there are several political obstacles to making these reform changes. These include Social Security’s looming insolvency by 2033.
The official announcement will arrive in October: The 2026 COLA will be based on the average CPI-W inflation from July through September 2025. The Social Security Administration will release its official figure around mid-October.¹¹
“Hold harmless” protections exist: Recipients won’t have their checks cut by rising Part B premiums. This is in case they meet certain conditions.
Paper checks are ending: By September 30, 2025, most payments will move to direct deposit or prepaid debit card.
Tax relief offers limited help: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” offers up to $6,000 deduction for eligible seniors. However, for many low-income retirees, the savings may be negligible.
Social Security says it will no longer send paper checks | What to know https://t.co/NvpMrfCKeM pic.twitter.com/4YGg9u3nHr
— ABC7 News (@abc7newsbayarea) August 4, 2025
Retirees can expect a modest 2026 benefit increase. However, it may not stretch far due to rising healthcare and housing prices.
Seniors are urged to review Medicare enrollment options as the COLA announcement approaches. They should double-check their cost exposure and explore supplemental retirement planning strategies.
